The United States now finds itself at war with Iran. Alongside Israel, we have been engaged in military operations against Iran for more than a week. The war is very popular among Israelis, a poll released last week showed that 82% of Israelis support the war against Iran. The war, however, is not as popular here in the United States with most polls reporting that around 60% of Americans do not support the military incursion into Iran.
The difference in support levels makes sense if you look at the rationale for the military operations given by both countries. Iran has long posed a threat to Israel and has worked with proxy groups, such as Hezbollah, in the region to eradicate the Jewish state. It is understandable that Israel views a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat and would work towards the removal of those nuclear capabilities. It appears, based on available reporting, that Israel believed that they had a small window of opportunity to strike and prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons. What’s interesting is that none of the rationale given by Israel includes regime change. Given the rationale provided by the Israeli government, which focuses on existential threats as well as security from Iran-backed proxy groups, it’s understandable that Israeli support for this war is so high.
But the messaging from the Trump administration has not been as disciplined or focused. An argument can be made that a nuclear-capable Iran poses a threat to vital American interests, even if it does not pose the same existential threat that it does to Israel. But that really hasn’t been among the reasons given by the Trump administration. Without a clear purpose or rationale, Americans are obviously concerned about getting drawn into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. And now the likelihood of a protracted war has gone up with the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous supreme leader, as the new supreme leader. The Trump administration has made it clear that they want input on who the next leader of Iran will be, and the selection of Khamenei, who is by some reports even more of a hardliner than his father was, does not seem to lend itself to a quick end to this war.
In addition to the administration, we’ve been getting some rationale from some familiar voices from the neo-conservatives. Neo-cons, once the driving ideology within the Republican Party, have found themselves largely out in the wilderness for the past decade. But with the advent of a new war in the Middle East comes the opportunity for them once again to talk about nation building and democratization. As we’ve seen in places like Afghanistan, somewhere we spent over two decades of lives, riches, and time, the likelihood of democratization is small.
And in exchange for an uncertain war waged for unclear reasons, we already have service members who have been killed, high gas prices, dropping stock markets, and scenes of violence in our allies’ cities in the region. There’s also the issue of what happens in other places around the globe when our focus is held by Iran. Getting drawn into this war means less focus and resources available to our allies elsewhere, including Taiwan, which has been the target of increasingly provocative and aggressive actions by the Chinese military recently. In addition, war continues to rage in Ukraine. Us focusing in on this conflict means putting our allies at peril as they face autocratic opponents of their own.
In no way does this pessimistic reading of the current scenario lead me to want for anything except success and safety for the men and women of our armed services, who do not choose the fights they engage in but nonetheless answer the call. It is also possible to be realistic about the potential outcomes and costs of this war while still remaining hopeful for the Iranian people. There is an opportunity, even if it is small, for the Iranian people to rid themselves of the theocratic regime that has oppressed them for decades. There is also an irony in America actively fighting for a self-determinant Iran when it was us who overthrew their democratically elected government 70 years ago, the first domino pushed over in a line that has led us to this moment. Regime change then, regime change now, the more things change, the more they stay the same.