Bird’s Eye View

“There’s a sucker born every minute.” ~ P.T. Barnum (maybe, but probably not)

By Jimmy Cardinal
Posted 4/24/24

The past decade has been a fascinating case study on the power of the cult of personality, particularly as it applies to the loyal followers of former president Donald Trump.

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Bird’s Eye View

“There’s a sucker born every minute.” ~ P.T. Barnum (maybe, but probably not)

Posted

The past decade has been a fascinating case study on the power of the cult of personality, particularly as it applies to the loyal followers of former president Donald Trump. The latest example is Truth Social. Truth Social is Trump’s personal social media platform, created after he was banned from other platforms. When the Trump Media & Technology Corp. (the parent company of Truth Social) went public last month, its stock symbol was DJT, another reminder that he is at the center of his universe.

When the company went public in March via a special-purpose acquisition company, it was big news. The initial valuation was $8 billion, a number that seems high for a company that created $4.1 million in revenue last year while losing $58.2 million. Trump has done a good job over the last decade of captivating the American imagination (either in admiration or dismay) through his rhetoric and bravado, but the market doesn’t care about charisma and personality, it cares only about the numbers. Which is why almost immediately after going public, Truth Social’s stock price started falling. Since its March 26 debut, it has lost nearly half of its initial $70.90 price. Last Tuesday it reached a low of $22.84 before rebounding and ending the week at $36.38.

Much of the downward pressure on the price was created by news that Truth Social may sell an additional 146 million shares in a secondary offering. Much of those shares are owned by Trump. If Trump does decide to sell his shares, he won’t be able to do so until September, because rules protect stocks against company founders cashing out quick after going public. But it’s never a good sign when a founder seemingly wants to get out. It’s also not a good look for a man whose whole image and persona surround the idea that he is one of the most successful businessmen in history.

In addition to the uneasiness about a potential secondary offering, there is also the distraction of lawsuits by former “The Apprentice” contestants Wes Moss and Andy Litinsky. They helped launch Truth Social and are now suing the company, claiming that Trump Media was trying to deprive them of the full value of their shares (they have an 8% stake in the company) and that they are being prevented by the company from selling their shares. The lock up rule that’s preventing them from selling is similar to the one that is preventing Trump from selling his shares until September. Trump Media has countersued, blaming Moss and Litinsky for a delay in a merger and claiming that they were responsible for technical failures when the platform initially launched in February 2022.

In addition to the suit by Moss and Litinsky, Patrick Orlando, a former chief executive of Digital World, the company that merged with Trump Media, is also suing for more shares, claiming he was unfairly pushed out before the merger was completed. Orlando was cast out during an SEC investigation which found that Digital World and Trump Media’s negotiations violated federal securities laws, resulting in an $18 million settlement with the SEC.

When we combine the lackluster launch of Truth Social, the pending legal issues, and the financial issues created by his personal legal troubles, Trump’s carefully curated image as a financial genius has certainly taken a beating recently. Remember that it took a last-minute bond deal to bail him out while he appeals the $454 million civil fraud judgement against him. And Trump’s legal woes are far from over, meaning he’s a guy who could probably use a quick infusion of cash. That need for cash could be the motivating factor behind his potential sell-off of Truth Social stock. With that in mind, you can understand why initial investors may be dumping their shares before Trump does. One wonders what the stock price will be in September when Trump has an opportunity to sell. Trump could make a potential $2.6 billion on the sale, but only if there are willing buyers. It is increasingly looking like the only buyers would be the suckers that Barnum was (maybe) talking about over a century ago.